IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast for 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from its October estimates due to economies’ adaptation to tariffs and continued boom in artificial intelligence investment. It maintained its growth projections of 3.3% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2027.
 The IMF noted that companies have redirected supply chains, while trade agreements have helped reduce tariffs, assuming the effective US tariff rate declines to 18.5% from around 25%.
 The fund projected US economic growth at 2.4% in 2026, supported by major investments in AI infrastructure, and lowered its 2027 forecast to 2.0%. It forecast Spain’s growth at 2.3% and kept the United Kingdom’s growth unchanged at 1.3%.
 The international financial institution also projected China’s growth at 4.5% in 2026, 0.3 percentage points higher than its October estimates, supported by lower US tariffs and the diversion of exports to alternative markets. It forecast eurozone growth at 1.3%, noted a slight improvement for Japan, and lowered Brazil’s forecast to 1.6% due to tighter monetary policy.
 The IMF indicated that AI could boost global growth by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026, but may also add inflationary pressures or trigger a correction in market valuations if productivity expectations fall short.
 It forecast global inflation to continue declining from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, creating room for further monetary easing and supporting growth.