By: Dr. Ahmad Al-Jumai'ah
Basra crisis and the Iranian failure!
The failure of the Iranian project in Iraq is currently escalating at the field level in Basra while Iran’s political failure in Iraq is incarnated in seizing the largest portion in the coming parliament. This comes after the alliance of Al-Sadr, Al-Abbadi, al-Hakim and others made relative progress against Hadi Al-Amiri, Nouri Al-Malki and the divided Kurds. It seems that Iran is on its way to give up after Al-Sadr defied Tehran and was followed by Al-Abbadi with his well-known statement "We won't risk the interests of our people to satisfy Iran or any other power", a matter which regarded by the Mullah as a coup and a slam on their faces.
What is happening in Basra has turned from a public stance calling for improving services into a political one after demonstrations reached the headquarters of political parties. There are very complicated calculations among powers seeking to invest the incidents for their interests rather than to contain them. Governmental powers aim at reaching appeasement on the account of resolving the political process before cards are mixed. It is still possible for these powers to rearrange their cards and send them back to the parliament for voting on the head of the government.
Iran also tries to invest what is taking place in Iraq for its political and public interests through harming the electoral process whose results were not expected and highlighting the political contrast among the powers with swinging stands such as the Kurds or those still calculating their upcoming parliamentary seats represented in the bloc of Al-Sadr, Al-Abbadi, Al-Hakim and Alawi. On the other hand Iran hopes to give a new chance for its mainstream of Al-Amiri and Al-Malki to go up again on the lists of candidacy.
The most difficult thing to imagine on Basra crisis is the volume of concessions. Neither the current government nor the political powers is ready to make concessions and everyone waits for the parliamentary session to which Al-Sadr called for tomorrow, a step that may represent the last chance to rescue the political process in Iraq, not only the deteriorating services in Basra. This means adhering to the results of the elections as a solution leading to forming a government settling current domestic crises. Iran hopes to turn the public crisis into a reason for sabotaging the electoral process and changing the political stands of blocs at the overtime.
The USA closely follows the situation in Iraq and has its agenda of curbing the Iranian role there and stopping it from causing a new chaos on the account of the electoral process that won't work for Iran this time. So an important political change in the future of Iraq is ahead. That change can be summed up in preserving the unity of Iraq as an Arab independent state containing all its components and factions under its flag, a matter that can be realized with the will and honor of the Iraqi people who rejected the sectarianism of Iran and adhered to their Arab nation.